Trump allowed Russian diesel sales: the permit is temporary, sanctions are not lifted, and experts expect little effect on fuel prices

Headlines say Trump made a deal with Putin and gave in to Russia. Here is what is confirmed and what is not.

What is confirmed

On October 9, President Trump said Russia would send more than 300,000 tons of diesel right away, 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons after that, and later another 3 million tons. The same day, the US Treasury issued a temporary permit, General License 135, that allows Russian diesel to be sold and imported. Democratic senators say it runs for six months. US diesel cost about $6.28 a gallon, close to a record, less than a month before the November 3 midterm elections.

What is not confirmed

The Kremlin said only that Russia is ready to supply oil and oil products. It gave no amounts and no dates. Russia's own ban on diesel exports runs until October 31. No shipment has been reported so far.

What this does not mean

Sanctions on Russia have not been lifted. This is a time-limited exception for one fuel. The sanctions law Trump signed last month has not been repealed.

Why concern is fair

• Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move a gift to Putin and said the money will pay for more war.
• Critics come from both US parties. Democratic senators called it a betrayal of Ukraine, and Republican congressman Don Bacon said buying Russian fuel is the wrong answer.
• The news came while Ukraine's negotiators were in Florida for talks with US officials.

Will fuel get cheaper?

Probably not by much. Market prices fell 7 to 8 cents a gallon after the news, analyst Tom Kloza of Gulf Oil told Newsweek. He doubts Russia can export much, because Ukrainian strikes have knocked out about half of its refining. Economist Ed Hirs of the University of Houston expects no relief at the pump until well after the election, and then only a small and short one.

What Europe says

The European Commission said the EU will keep cutting its use of Russian fuels. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Europe will not ease pressure on Russia and announced new sanctions.

Bottom line

The decision is real and disputed, and the worry about funding Russia's war is fair. But the permit is temporary, the amounts are unconfirmed, and the effect on prices is likely to be small.

Sources: Newsweek, Kyiv Independent, AP via NPR, NBC News