Polls Suggest a Close Israeli Election, but Neither Main Bloc Has a Clear Majority

Israel's parliamentary election on October 27 could bring major changes, but polls do not yet show a clear winner. Surveys published ahead of the vote suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is trailing its main rival, a group of parties led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot. However, neither side appears to have enough seats to govern on its own.

Recent polling puts Eisenkot's bloc at around 53 to 54 seats and Netanyahu's allies at roughly 49 to 51 in the 120-seat Knesset. A majority requires 61 seats. Other parties could therefore play a decisive role in talks over the next government. These figures are estimates, not election results, and different polls show slightly different outcomes.

Arab-majority parties may be particularly important. They could win enough seats to influence which side can assemble a majority. Yet this is not a straightforward path to power: most major Jewish parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab parties, and Eisenkot has also said he would not form a government with them. The positions parties take after the election may therefore matter as much as their projected seat totals.

The campaign has been shaped by security concerns following the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, the war in Gaza, disputes over military service for ultra-Orthodox men, the cost of living and questions about responsibility for security failures. Arab citizens have also raised concerns about discrimination and restrictions on their political and public lives.

Claims that Netanyahu is certain to suffer a decisive defeat go beyond what the polls establish. His party appears to be under pressure, but the election outcome and the shape of any future coalition remain uncertain. The key question is not simply which bloc finishes first, but whether either can find enough parliamentary support to govern.